Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 4.068720 4.443045 4.858337 5.357732 5.948140 6.632007 7.496399
2024-12-29 3.594363 4.086494 4.672217 5.436209 6.431458 7.723580 9.603126
2025-01-05 3.223362 3.754722 4.415142 5.323225 6.587912 8.374547 11.287922
2025-01-12 2.950075 3.496655 4.197770 5.200910 6.673366 8.904836 12.937236
2025-01-19 2.709159 3.250560 3.960786 5.006849 6.604323 9.162918 14.204579
2025-01-26 2.607971 3.175280 3.939996 5.107566 6.983357 10.218910 17.443966
2025-02-02 2.556272 3.159169 3.995004 5.320837 7.573347 11.809396 22.923829
2025-02-09 2.486296 3.110223 3.995427 5.445551 8.032755 13.304189 29.663614
2025-02-16 2.375208 2.994345 3.885898 5.377608 8.128307 14.059751 35.064745
2025-02-23 2.281987 2.897751 3.796953 5.332181 8.256073 14.935636 42.372110
2025-03-02 2.195314 2.805264 3.706923 5.274113 8.347276 15.758895 51.306748
2025-03-09 2.117274 2.721022 3.623525 5.218314 8.432825 16.607480 63.084123
2025-03-16 2.054278 2.657334 3.570432 5.215283 8.640908 17.943600 85.432268
2025-03-23 2.014232 2.625964 3.566625 5.301509 9.066133 20.217806 141.583965
2025-03-30 1.939622 2.538025 3.464959 5.193965 9.022159 20.879442 189.028944
2025-04-06 1.868622 2.452603 3.362731 5.076556 8.936599 21.367966 254.802519
2025-04-13 1.789435 2.351572 3.229826 4.890025 8.655639 20.982458 286.277725
2025-04-20 1.766939 2.337688 3.241527 4.986860 9.104500 23.927978 1140.410132
2025-04-27 1.763869 2.353771 3.304323 5.191749 9.887974 29.322978 NaN
2025-05-04 1.746194 2.345604 3.324548 5.311461 10.473946 34.666813 NaN
2025-05-11 1.700794 2.290963 3.260306 5.246252 10.504640 36.614214 NaN
2025-05-18 1.661204 2.244339 3.208026 5.202641 10.595314 39.218762 NaN
2025-05-25 1.621964 2.196949 3.152197 5.146881 10.639325 41.632004 NaN